Politics

The Great Game Revisited: the Quest for Central Asian Oil

Written by Gaurav Bhola, MSM, Managing Editor & Community Manager on July 31, 2007 8:16 am EST

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Rudyard Kipling first coined the phrase “Great Game” in famed novel Kim to depict the nineteenth century contest between Russia and Britain over Central Asia. The area acted as a buffer to the expansion of the Russian Empire into India. In the twentieth century Russia appropriated the region, only Afghanistan remained out of its sphere. The trophy for Russia was access to the warm water ports of the Gulf, Mediterranean, and the Indian Ocean. The objective of the British was to maintain Russian influence from extending south, to guard the sea routes to India, and to preserve British naval preeminence worldwide. The game was played out over 150 years ago between these two great empires. But empires fade and new ones ascend, but the old ambitions never fade away. However, this time there are several new players in the great game, each desiring control over the natural wealth of Central Asia.

Central Asia is composed of countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Empire: Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Caucasian republics are composed of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Also, bordering the Caspian Sea are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan. The investors and the men who lead these former Soviet states are a combination of egos, huge ambition, and huge monies that make a highly potent mixture. Also, if another ingredient is added, the mixture becomes even more potent; the Caspian zone’s strategic importance. The Central Asian republics are a land bridge between Europe and Asia, Islam and Christianity, and a buffer between Russia and NATO.

But to add to this already potent mix: the Caspian oil and gas are worthless unless they can be shipped to market and that is an arduous task in a landlocked region. These republics have one form of natural wealth or another that attracts nations and multinational corporations. The Great Game’s greatest player and potential investor is the lone superpower, the United States. Herein, the US can leverage its might to access the region’s resources, gain strategic depth, and spread democracy to the republics. However, there are a few obstacles:

Resurgent Russia under Putin’s leadership has attempted to reclaim an assertive role in the region; as it did recently with Ukraine to teach it a lesson for the Orange Revolution of 2004. Russia still sees this entire region within its sphere of influence; the slow NATO expansion eastwards has only made Russia re-double its efforts to maintain dominance in the region.

Caspian basin and Central Asia region is landlocked, immensely difficult to access and bring oil to the market

Energy hungry China’s attempt to checkmate American influence in the region through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China’s recent purchase of Kazakhstani oil assets illustrate its policy to diversify dependence on Middle Eastern oil; as well as challenge American oil diplomacy

Region is politically unstable; Chechnya imbroglio, Afghanistan and Pakistan instability can spillover to the surrounding Central Asian republics, disputes between Central Asian and Caucasian republics

Insuring the safety of the pipelines is of main concern; prevent terrorist attacks or taps on the pipelines

In order to overcome these issues, the US needs to seek cooperation of several nations in the region. After all, the oil will traverse the territories of more than one nation before it can reach market. Also, the region is in Russia’s neighborhood; any deals with the United States by these countries must in some manner get Russia’s informal approval or cut Russia into the deal. It is in the US interest to develop and utilize different pipeline routes to lessen the leverage of any one country.

The quest for oil and gas is the pivot upon which the world economy revolves. The playground is Central Asia; the game crowded by multiple players and their respective corporations. Herein, the United States must deftly use its diplomatic skills with nations that constitute the republics and their neighbors, especially Russia, China, and Iran. We must have a multi-pronged strategy if we are to ultimately win the Great Game.

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